Here’s an interesting tidbit from the Drone Journalism Lab at the University of Nebraska (Lincoln):
Nebraska is currently facing its worst drought since the Dust Bowl of the Great Depression. The least amount of rain fell on the state this summer since records were kept in 1895.
What does a drought that severe look like?
Here’s the video they took, using a drone, of what the Platt River (it’s a major river that stretches over 1,000 miles) looks like today:
NOTE: This is a pretty cool demonstration of how simple drone technology can be used to gather information and insight about what is going on in your community, and how it can be shared.
Let’s contrast this picture of drought with graphics depicting the torrential downfalls of rain expected from Hurricane Sandy. A storm has the potential to be the most severe storms in 100 years.
The first is an estimate of potential rainfall from NOAA. Note that the greatest amount of rainfall estimated is 11.57 inches!
Next, is a picture showing where New York City will likely flood and how badly.
So much water in such a short period of time is going to stress storm drains, sewage systems, water systems, building foundations, transportation(particularly bridges), and much more.
It’s likely to be a big mess. A mess made much worse because EVERYONE is completely dependent on systems they don’t have any control over and they all are going to demand help from government officials and the big infrastructure companies at the SAME time.
Here’s what we can learn about this.
Localization helps. For example, last year’s big October snowstorm in New England led to a blackout that last for almost a week. In contrast, the towns with local power companies were able to get back to 100% within a couple of days.
The other lesson is something I learned when I got my degree in Astronautical Engineering (I designed rocket ships and satellites).
When big systems, particularly the ones we don’t fully understand, begin to swing from extreme to extreme, events like this are going to become common.
As Rob, a farmer in Wisconsin, puts it: ”in my 8 years here in Jefferson County WI, we have had 2x 100 yr, 1x 500 yr, and 3x 50 yr floods. It’s getting real…”
Simply: Extreme events like the above are the new normal.
With this new normal in mind, please take steps to add some production of food, energy, water, products, and income to your home and community. It will make your more resilient.
The more resilient you are, the less events like this will impact you and the people in your community. The more resilient communities, the less these events will negatively impact anyone.
Connect to the world on your own terms, become resilient!
Resiliently Yours,
JOHN ROBB
PS: One of the reasons we keep careening from crisis to crisis is that even the most highly compensated experts in the world don’t understand simple facts about big systems. For example, just after the financial crisis in 2008, David Viniar, the CFO of Goldman Sachs told the press that the financial crisis was a once in 10,000 year event. It wasn’t. We can’t be precise on how frequent events like this will be. Why? We only have a decade of experience with a financial system this complex, certainly not 10,000 years worth of data, and the theories we are using to model our financial system are sketchy, at best. If anything, an event like this in a system that big, fast, and opaque to understanding is a sign more instability is on the way. With experts like these, who needs enemies?
PPS: The plan is to launch Resilient Strategies next week. Finally! I’ve put in the effort to make it is the best service in the world for connecting you to the people, ideas, and tools you need to prosper in the future, no matter what happens.
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The Platte river levels are really a good indicator. Growing up on the river, it was as low and lower in the past during normal seasons.
I’m not saying there isn’t global warming. There is, and it is man-made.
I’m just saying this particular river, just is not a good indicator given it’s history.
Concur. It’s a very shallow river and in earlier years, too many claims on it have led it to run low. However, it’s a good visual representation of a drought that is setting an historical record in Nebraska.
Edit, I meant to say the Platter levels are NOT a good indicator.
“When big systems, particularly the ones we don’t fully understand, begin to swing from extreme to extreme, events like this are going to become common.”
i do not understand this statement. “swing from extreme to extreme”: do you mean repeated extreme events, like, say, another wall street meltdown like 2008 (and if so, is n’t that adequately explained by the fact that the behavior that caused it has simply been allowed to continue after it)? or do you mean some kind of oscillation between opposites–or would you say repetition of extreme events with sort of troughs in between does constitute an oscillation?
more important, i see no logical connection made in the language here from the wide swinging from extreme to extreme (or swinging between extremes?) to the increasing frequency of extreme events. there must be a rather down to earth metaphor or expression that can convey what sounds like a rather straightforward phenomenon–or is this a case where it really IS “rocket science”?
if you could clarify/explain this sentence, or give a link to a good explanation, i’ll be grateful. i feel it’s something important for me to understand and be able to share with my neighbors and community.
Aletheia,
Sure. Here’s an example of a complex system going from from extreme (nose up) to extreme (nose down).
http://youtu.be/k6yVU_yYtEc
Every attempt to stabilize the plane by bringing the plane back into the correct angle for landing, fails.
Each attempts overshoots, and the plane ends up at the other extreme. It occurs again and again, until the plane hits the ground.
The simple explanation is that the plane is likely operating beyond its design parameters. When that happens things you can do to control the system don’t do what they are supposed to do. They can either overcorrect, or fail to correct at all.
So, let’s take the financial crash. Here we are, four years after he crash and the Fed has pulled out the stops trying to juice this economy and the US government is still running a trillion dollar deficit to prop up the economy.
With all of that stimulus, this economy is still failing. Are the controls for our economic/financial system working?
Hope this helps,
JR
In September I took a long road trip through most of the Western states and all the states bordering the Mississippi. I was quite suprised to see a very green and lush countryside. In talking to relatives in some of these “drought stricken” states I heard that the spring rains were mostly absent but after July they did get rain. So while it’s true there was less rain (a normal result for a la nina year) it is not true they are in some kind of massive drought. And it is also the case that some areas fared better then others. Crops are down 10%-20% but that’s it. A lot of the hype is directed at the federal government to force them to divert money to the states affected and don’t really reflect reality. I make this trip every year, since I’m retired, and I’m accustomed to seeing brown everywhere in late August and early September but this year I saw green; green grass, green crops, green trees, no sign of drought. So while technically it is a low rain summer caused by La Nina it is far from this dust bowl meme people keep pushing.
GWTW< Here's the UNL drought monitor. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
It provides a extremely precise overview of which areas have been impacted by the drought.
This year’s drought wasn’t as bad as the dust bowl droughts. It ranks about fifth, which makes it as we’ve seen since the 50′s. In isolated areas, it has been pretty intense (although not as bad as Texas was last year).
Late summer rains in some areas have really helped (whew). So we’ll only likely see a 4-5% increase in food prices next year, which is still a lot given incomes are dropping by 1.5% a year. We’re just lucky it’s not the 10%+ increase it was shaping up to be in July.
JR
CP has lots of links and updates on Sandy:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/28/1101241/cnn-bans-term-frankenstorm-but-its-a-good-metaphor-for-warming-driven-monster-largest-hurricane-in-atlantic-history/
The “largest hurricane in Atlantic history measured by diameter of gale force winds (1,040mi)” [Capital Weather Gang]
“A Storm Like No Other” [National Weather Service via AP]. NWS: “I cannot recall ever seeing model forecasts of such an expansive areal wind field with values so high for so long a time. We are breaking new ground here.”
“Transitioning from a warm-core (ocean-powered) hurricane into an extra-tropical low pressure system, a classic Nor’easter, fed by powerful temperature extremes and swirling jet stream winds aloft to amplify and focus the storm’s fury” [meteorologist Paul Douglas]
Being fueled in part by “ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast [] about 5°F above average,” so “there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain” [former Hurricane Hunter Jeff Masters]
Also being driven by a high pressure blocking pattern near Greenland “forecast to be three standard deviations from the average” [Climate Central and CWG]
hoax merchants have been around for years banging on about this, then when you really need one, not one shows up to say anything
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