Climate change is here. We’re seeing increasingly frequent and extreme “heavy weather” events like these every day:
- Record setting droughts and heat waves.
- Once in a century floods and epic storm surges.
- Violent weather of all types.
In fact, all the evidence I see suggests that heavy weather is going to become a critical part of our daily lives as climate change continues to intensify.
Fortunately, there is a small silver lining to this. Resilient communities handle heavy weather events much more easily than communities that haven’t become resilient. Further, each new heavy weather disaster isn’t only a disaster, it’s also an opportunity to increase your community’s resilience.
Let’s dig into this a bit.
What People Actually Do During a Crisis
In a crisis, people don’t usually panic. That’s a misconception (perpetuated by Hollywood, Government planners, and the Press).
What do people actually do during a crisis? They form ad hoc communities and help each other out.
It’s amazing how common this is. I suspect this reaction is buried deep in our DNA. DNA formed by hundreds of thousands of years of living in tribes that routinely dealt with danger and crisis.
So, when a crisis hits, the modern dysfunctional veneer of “every person for him/herself” and “I don’t trust you beyond what the contract specifically stipulates” is torn away, and for good reason. A community built on shared outcomes, as in “we are in this together,” is the best way to survive the short-term effects of a crisis. In contrast, people who go it alone typically fail.
Here’s an example of how a community responds in action (it is not in any way uncommon).
Spontaneous Resilience In Duluth, MN
Resilient community correspondent Marcus Wynne (ex Special Operator/Trainer/Air Marshal and Prolific Author) sent this dispatch from the flood zone in Duluth, MN.
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Problem: Epic flooding blocks streets, washes out bridges and collapses roads. People must travel, check on neighbors, gather supplies, establish communications.
Solution: Break out the kayaks and start a waterborne recon, check out who needs help, carry supplies and messages as needed. No standing around and wringing hands. Just act.
This is how the bones of a resilient community are formed: spontaneous close-to-the-problem solutions generated by the people closest to the problem. An open source resilient community.
In most of the city, there’s still power and Internet — primary means of communication for crowd-sourced data is Twitter and Facebook and text messages. Minnesota does a pretty good of this.
Implications: If your personal resilience relies on your homestead, how well prepared are you for these kind of weather/natural events? Do you have neighbors (a community and proven network) that would jump into a kayak and paddle over to check on you? Redundant communications?
My important lessons:
- My network of friends and neighbors was tested and found to be useful.
- Recreational skills have utility in a natural disaster — backpacking, camping, kayaking, swimming, etc.
- Most real world problems are solved by the people closest to it — empower, reach out and communicate solutions. Don’t wait for the government to rescue you. In our current situation, there isn’t currently any law enforcement communication from Duluth to the Canadian border.
Some other observations?
- Crowd-sourced local high-tech can help. For example, a kayaker with a helmet mounted wireless camera connected to an iPhone, can update Facebook as he recons the creek and the washed out bridges/roads.
- Fast cars become unusable – most modern cars drown in six – 8 inches of water if driven by someone who doesn’t know how to create a bow wave. 6 -8 inches of moving water will float a modern midsize car off the road and into the stream. When you go foot-mobile, good foot gear is essential.
- Storing and harvesting rainwater is often critical during a flood as well as a drought. Flood waters can overwhelm a sewage system, forcing raw sewage into the fresh water system. If you store water locally, you are all set…
Cheers, Marcus (currently your nomadic, but still resilient, correspondent)
JR NOTE: After the acute phase of a crisis ends, take advantage of any residual community momentum to make headway on other projects (phone/food/water tree?). Don’t let the opportunity slip away.
Ferrocement Update
Last week’s letter had a bit from a generous reader Federico on building strong structures quickly with ferrocement. Here are some follow-up examples of ferrocement construction he has in his home. It’s quite beautiful.
More from Federico:
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Some time ago, Christopher Alexander’s book A Pattern Language inspired my wife and myself to expand our house, and to build concrete vaults instead of flat roofs. Vaults are easy to build, don’t require expensive and wasteful formwork, drain automatically, give you tall ceilings, and make rooms quite special.
It was then that I found Flying Concrete, a fantastic web page of ferrocement construction, especially vaulted structures. The idea is to build catenary vaults. A catenary is the curve that results from hanging a chain from two points; when you turn it upside down, you get the most efficient vault possible. The church of the Sagrada Familia, in Barcelona, by Antoni Gaudí, is a very tall structure built entirely out of catenary vaults and arches.
Ignore the light brown strips under the structure; originally I wanted to use flexible wooden strips instead of rebar, but got MDF by accident – and only later discovered that it got unusably soft when wet. Other than that, the structure of the vault is the same as for the little bridge: rebar and tied wire mesh.
First you can lay on a thin layer of concrete, let it harden a bit, and then lay a thicker layer on top of that. This prevents the mesh from sagging too much from the initial weight.
In the picture above you can see a larger vault already poured, and a similar vault in the process of being formed. The base of each of those is a square of about 4×4 meters, and the vault itself is under 1 meter tall. This requires no form-work at all; the rebar/mesh and concrete support themselves.
Free-form Structures
Finally, let me show you two staircases. The vaulted arches on the first one, and the funny curve on the second one, are a thin ferrocement shell. Then the steps are poured on top of the hardened shell, each one with little wood to hold the concrete.
Thanks again to Marcus for the community report and Federico for the examples of ferrocement.
Your always searching for examples of resilience analyst,
JOHN ROBB
PS: A big thank you to all of the people who took the survey we sent out on Monday. It’s a big help.
PPS: I’m off to Aspen, CO for the National Geographic/Aspen Institute conference on the environment. I’ll let you know what I find.
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Infrastructure is really taking a beating out here. Implications for the resilient community: local volunteer groups are organizing in addition to ad-hoc efforts, well in advance of most official response. Local utility workers are awesome, been at it since 2am and still working. As long as internet is up, minute by minute updates via Twitter, FB and the local emergency response mapping gives great information to steer around washed out roads, etc.
Sudden weather events like this are on the increase: Durban South Africa had a massive hailstorm the other day; tornado outbreaks in the south, epic rainfall here. Worth considering from a short term and long term perspective; issues around water and power rear their head.
Will update more on lessons learned if people interested.
cheers, m
enjoy Aspen – if you have the time i highly suggest a hike up to Crater Lake and the Maroon Bells.
Climate Progress has some good coverage of the current floods in MN and the fires here in CO/the southwest and the links to climate change: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/20/503301/hell-and-high-water-as-record-sw-wildfires-rage-duluth-is-deluged/
“Extreme weather is affecting nearly every region of the U.S. again this summer. The most destructive wildfire in Colorado history have already destroyed 55,000 acres. The wildfires in the west are being fueled by climate change.
As for the stunning deluge in Minnesota, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained here in 2010: “There is a systematic influence on all of these weather events now-a-days because of the fact that there is this extra water vapor lurking around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years ago. It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/20/501081/connecting-the-dots-how-climate-change-is-fueling-western-wildfires/
forests are far more resistant to desertification than cultivated fields. permaculture and food forestry are important to building resilient food productions systems that are not dependent on monoculture, GMO crops.
Microclimates!
“Climate change is here.”
really?
how does this differ from an ice age, or the transition from same?
“the only thing permanent is change”
some old white fellow, pre Gospel
Sure, if you are merely looking at it from the perspective of the global environment, it’s relatively minor. The earth can easily recover from everything we’ve done so far.
However, for human beings, it is a big deal. It is full of downside risk at every level. You either get ready for it, or suffer the consequences.
“‘Climate change is here.’”
really?
how does this differ from an ice age, or the transition from same?”
Anthropogenic climate change differs from previous historical change in innumerable ways. Some of the most relevant: past climate changes were usually more gradual, allowing ecosystems more time to adapt. During previous transitions, there were not 7+ billion humans on the planet, many of which are armed with massively destructive technologies and dedicated to maintaining the behaviors responsible for environmental decimation with organized violence. Modern climate change = war, conflict, diaspora, and disruption of life support systems for both humans and non-humans on a completely unprecedented scale.
more info –
http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/previous-assessments/global-climate-change-impacts-in-the-us-2009
“Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production.
Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts.”
What Role Did Climate Change Play In Epic Duluth Floods?
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/23/505133/what-role-did-climate-change-play-in-epic-duluth-floods/
NYC’s first day of summer: White hot, hungry for power
http://grist.org/news/nycs-first-day-of-summer-white-hot-hungry-for-power/
“…Usage today is a full 25 percent higher than it was yesterday at the same time. That’s a big spike, one that puts strain on electricity providers. And that strain means that Con Edison, our local provider, has issued warnings about brownouts.”
Arctic sea-ice takes a nose dive –
“Sea ice area has never been so low for this date in the satellite record, not even close to it. 2012 has over half a million of square kilometres less ice than record minimum years 2007 and 2011.”
http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/06/arctic-sea-ice-takes-nose-dive.html
it appears we will be in for
Earth systems disruption: Does 2011 indicate the “new normal” of climate chaos and conflict?
In ‘Global Warming and the Arab Spring’ the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reports, “A proximate factor behind the unrest was a spike in global food crises, which in turn was due in part to the extreme weather throughout the globe over the past year.” The IISS article details the interlinking factors of climate change and upheaval, insisting climate change has and will continue to be a key factor in large social disruptions.
http://news.mongabay.com/2011/1221-ryanking_earthsystemsdisruption.html
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